翻訳 69
Not the Beginning of a Multi-Polar World, After All?
記者の目：日本は「オバマ・ショック」に備えよ＝笠原敏彦
１人の指導者の誕生に、世界がこれほど期待を寄せたことがあっただろうか。２０日に就任するオバマ次期米大統領のことだ。ただ、日本では少々、事情が異 なる。米国の「ハート」を中国に奪われはしないかと、不安なのである。大胆に予測するなら、その懸念は的中し、日本外交は緩やかな「オバマ・ショック」に 見舞われ、歴史的には日米同盟の分水嶺（ぶんすいれい）として振り返られることだろう。
オバマ外交を占う上で示唆的な話を紹介したい。アジア外交担当として次期政権入りが確実視される米国の知人から聞いた話だ。
民主党の大統領候補指名争いが続いていた昨年３月、オバマ陣営とヒラリー・クリントン（次期国務長官）陣営の外交スタッフ約４０人が南部フロリダ州のホ テルに招集された。いずれも政権発足時には外交を動かす政府高官候補たち。目的は、民主党政権誕生に備えて「外交政策の一本化」を図ることだった。
数日間の合宿論議でテーマとなったのは中国、ロシア、インドへの外交政策だった。この３カ国に焦点が絞られたのは「国際秩序の行方に影響を及ぼす国々」だからで、日本は「中国政策を論議する文脈でしか語られなかった」という。
この事例をもって、米国の日本軽視を論じるつもりは毛頭ない。米国にとって日本は重要である。ただ、「重要」の意味は、米国の世界戦略の中で相対的にとらえなければならない。
昨春までワシントンで米外交を担当し、外国首脳らがホワイトハウスをひっきりなしに訪れるのを見ながら、こんな日米の相関図を思い描くようになった。
アメリカは超モテ男で、世界中から熱い視線を集める。この血の気が多いモテ男の周りには、思わせぶりな美女からしつこいストーカータイプまで、手を焼く 面々が多い。ガールフレンド（同盟国）も数多いが、日本はさしずめ、ひたすら尽くす献身的タイプだ。たまに耳元で「日本は大事」とささやいておけば、３歩 下がってついてくる。
笑うなかれ。米国が昨年１０月、北朝鮮のテロ支援国家指定を解除した経緯を思い起こしてほしい。日本が「指定解除しないで」と懇願し続け、ブッシュ大統 領も「拉致問題は忘れない」と繰り返していたのに、あっけなく指定は解除された。それでも日本は懲りもせず「日米関係の強化」を呪文のように唱え続けてい るのが現実ではないか。
話は逸脱したが、オバマ政権のモテぶりはギネスブック級になりそうで、日本はジェラシーを募らせそうだ。逆説的だが、国際社会のオバマ氏への期待の高さ は、ブッシュ政権下で米国のパワーの巨大さを嫌というほど思い知ったことの裏返しである。だから、一般にいう「米国の一極支配」の終幕と、「世界の多極 化」という構図は必ずしも正確ではないだろう。
世界の現状は、唯一の超大国・米国を頂点に欧州やロシア、中国、インドなどに「パワー・センター（極）」の萌芽（ほうが）が分散しているというのが実態に近い。そして、その潜在的な国力からして確実に米国と並ぶ「極」へ成長を続けているのが、中国である。
米外交界の重鎮、リチャード・ハース外交問題評議会会長は米誌ニューズ・ウィーク新年号で指摘している。「新政権にとっての最重要課題は中国と対中外交 である。米中関係次第で２１世紀の世界はまったく違ったものになりかねない」。経済危機からイラン、北朝鮮の核問題、エネルギー危機まで世界が直面する問 題は中国の協調なしには解決が困難なものばかりだ。
米国の対中外交へのエネルギー傾注が必然かつ自明の理となった今、「（日米）安保堅持を叫んでいれば米外交において重要な位置付けを日本は得るという時代は終わった」（田中直毅国際公共政策研究センター理事長「中央公論」０８年１２月号）のである。
日本は第二次大戦後、日米同盟のお陰で世界第２の経済大国になり得た。しかし、その過剰な依存のせいで経済力を政治・外交力に転化できなかった。米国の 一極構造が溶解し始める中で、日米同盟に依存した世界観で外交を続けるなら、日本の国際的な地位は劇的に低下するだろう。
日本が取るべき道は、対米協調を基調としながらも、アジアや国際機関を舞台に外交の多極化を積極的に進めることである。その際、将来の米中二極時代も視野に入れ、その流れにいかに絡み、どう国益を確保していくかという戦略的視点が欠かせない。
例えば、日米中３カ国による定例首脳会議の設置に向けて日本がイニシアチブを取り、得意とする環境・エネルギー分野、アフリカ問題などで積極的に提言することで、米中双方への影響拡大を狙うというのも選択肢の一つだろう。
Not the Beginning of a Multi-Polar World, After All?
Reporter's Eye: Japan should brace itself for the “Obama shock”
Kasahara Toshihiko
When US President-elect Barack Obama is sworn into office on January 20, he will have the hopes and expectations of the world on his shoulders. Feelings are somewhat different here in Japan, where there are concerns that the heart of America will be lost to China. If the bold predictions of these anxieties come to pass, Japanese diplomacy will experience what can be called a gradual “Obama shock,” which will be seen retrospectively as a turning point in the Japan-US alliance.
It feels apt to share a story that may be indicative of Obama's foreign policy. It is a story I heard from a friend in the US who is all but certain to enter the new administration as the head of Asian foreign affairs.
Last March, during the Democratic Presidential primaries, around 40 diplomatic staff from the camps of Obama and Hillary Clinton (the next Secretary of State) met in a hotel in southern Florida. As they were candidates to become government officials, they were all likely to become key players in foreign affairs in the new administration. Their aim was to unify foreign policy in preparation for the new Democratic government.
Over the course of several days, the diplomatic staff discussed foreign policy with regard to China, Russia and India. Their focus narrowed in on these three countries as they would “influence the course of international order,” with Japan only talked about “in the context of discussing Chinese foreign policy.”
I have no intention of arguing that this is proof that the US disregards Japan. While Japan is important to the US, that importance is relative, and should be understood within the context of the US global strategy.
Until last spring, I was in charge of US foreign policy in Washington, and it was while I watched a near constant stream of foreign leaders visiting the White House that I began to clearly visualize relations between the US and Japan.
The US is a popular ladies' man, and countries across the world are attracted to him. He is presented with everything from the flirtations of beautiful women to the insistence of stalkers, while many others are unsure how to take him. Whereas he has many girlfriends (or allies), Japan is devoted and earnestly serves him, and will continue to do so, as long as the US whispers, “You're important, Japan,” every once in a while.
Don't laugh. Recall the removal of North Korea from the state sponsors of terrorism list in October last year. Despite Japan continuing to petition the US government not to do so, and President Bush repeatedly saying that he would not forget about the abductions, North Korea was swiftly removed from the list. Nevertheless, the reality is that Japan does not learn from experience, and continues to chant “strengthened Japan-US relations,” like an incantation.
I digress. The popularity of the Obama administration seems likely to enter the Guinness Book of Records, which will surely leave Japan feeling jealous. Paradoxically,the international community's high expectations of Obama reflect the fact that we have realized, to the point of aversion, the enormity of US power under the Bush administration. But the idea that after the end of the “unipolar rule of the United States” there will be a “multipolarization of the world” is not necessarily accurate.
In reality, the current state of the world is one in which the US sits at the top as the sole superpower, with buds of power centers scattered across Europe, Russia, China, India and so on. Judging by its potential, China is growing towards being a power center to sit alongside the US.
Richard Haas, President of the Council on Foreign Relations and prominent figure within the world of US foreign policy, said in a New Year edition of American magazine Newsweek, “China, and diplomacy with China, are the most important issues for the new administration. US-China relations have a big sway in how the world of the 21st century will be.” The problems facing the world – whether that be economic crises, Iran, North Korea's nuclear program, or the energy crisis – are all difficult to resolve without cooperation from China.
It has become an inevitability that the US has to invest its energy into diplomacy with China, which in turn impacts Japan. As Tanaka Naoki, President of the Center for International Public Policy said, in the December 2008 issue of Chūōkōron, “Japan can no longer achieve an important position within US diplomacy simply by crying out for the US-Japan Security Treaty to be maintained.”
After World War Two, the Japan-US alliance enabled Japan to become the world's second largest economy. But excessive reliance on this relationship also meant Japan did not develop political or diplomatic influence from its economic gains. If Japan cannot free itself from a worldview where it depends on the Japan-US alliance, its international standing will only suffer as the US unipolar system begins to dissolve.
Japan should strive for a foundation of cooperation with the US while also actively engaging in multipolar diplomacy in Asia and with international organizations. In so doing, Japan must develop a strategic approach that takes into account the future bipolarity of the US and China, that sets out how Japan will be involved, as well as how it will insure its national interests.
Japan could, for example, take the initiative and establish a regular trilateral summit between the US, China and Japan. This would enable Japan to proactively make proposals concerning the environment and energy – fields in which Japan is an expert – as well as African issues, and so on, with the aim of increasing Japan's influence on both the US and China.
